A computer environment to support the strategic decision-making process in construction firms

A computer environment to support the strategic decision-making process in construction firms is presented. The system implements modelling concepts originally developed to evaluate project execution strategies, extending and generalizing the modelling methodology to a broader range of strategic decisions. An application to a construction firm's strategic planning is used in this paper to illustrate the modelling process. The computer system is designed to help the users in building a conceptual model for the decision problem, this model is a simplified structure of the variables and interactions that influence the decisions being analysed, including internal as well as external factors. An analytical model is then designed to predict the impact of these strategies, integrating expert knowledge and assessments of the strategic planning team into a mathematical model. The mathematical component uses concepts of cross-impact analysis and probabilistic inference to capture uncertainties and interactions among project variables. The system provides multiple analysis capabilities, including sensitivity analysis, selected outcome prediction, isolated or combined effect of strategies and changes in performance due to changes in the external environment. The system allows management to test different combinations of long-term strategies and predict expected sales, market share or other measures of performance.