Analysis of the accuracy of standard/average value curves using food retail building projects as case studies

Several cash flow forecasting models have been developed for use by the contractor at the tendering stage. The majority of these models have been based on the standard S-curve. The accuracy of these models depends on the accuracy of the standard S-curve used. Many researchers have attempted to develop standard S-curves using past projects. These projects were primarily classified in terms of broad-based categories (e.g. commercial buildings). The results of past research have demonstrated that cumulative value/cost curves vary significantly. In the present paper, a more specific type of building was selected (food retail stores). Historical data for 20 projects was collected and analysed for the feasibility of developing a more accurate standard S-curve. The results demonstrate that an accurate standard S-curve was not achieved even when projects were further classified into more detailed groups (i.e. different sizes of superstores).