Forecasting methodology of national demand for construction labour

The paper presents a systematic methodology for forecasting the demand for construction labour in various skills, within a national economy. Major factors, which determine the future needs for dwelling units and for other types of construction, are discussed in detail, while the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting approaches are highlighted. Possible sources, available in most countries, for statistical information, as well as the International Classification of Occupations and Economic Branches, are identified and evaluated. The methodology is general and may be applicable to any country. It is illustrated by an example of such a forecast for the next decade, performed by the authors in Israel, in the years 1988 and 1989. The various demand and supply parameters, which formed a basis for this forecast, significantly changed with the unexpected surge of immigration from the Soviet Union in 1990. The effects of this change arc discussed separately in the paper.