Simulation applied to construction projects

The paper describes the uncertain environment in which construction activity occurs, and in particular the variability in productivity and the occurrence of external interferences. The paper then describes a suite of computer programs known as the Construction Project Simulator (CPS) whose features include: a hierarchy of linked bar charts, 'preliminaries schedule', weather data, direct costs, and resources for costing and/or resource restraint. The results of an actual project are presented to demonstrate the type and range of output available, including duration and cost predictions and cash flow curves. The results of four varied construction projects subjected to simulation are presented, with the results demonstrating an improvement in accuracy over the common deterministic estimating procedures of the UK construction industry.