Analysis of energy and carbon flows in the future Norwegian dwelling stock

A dynamic analysis of future energy and carbon flows (2000-2050) is performed on the aggregated residential building stock in Norway. The basis for the analysis is a dynamic material flow analysis of floor areas and the main building materials. By adding energy intensity assumptions for space heating, water heating, domestic electrical appliances and embodied energy in construction materials, the future corresponding delivered energy demand is calculated. This forms the basis for life cycle estimation of the future direct and indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The predicted demand for delivered energy in 2025 will increase by 24.0% and 12.5% above those for 2000 and 2010, respectively, and then remain stable towards 2050. Energy savings per unit of floor area are counterbalanced by growth in the building stock. The very high influence of energy technology assumptions within the electricity generation market is demonstrated, along with the large differences between using attributional and consequential life cycle assessment principles in the calculation of future emissions. Future electricity demand met by marginal power generation technologies in the European market will yield substantially higher GHG emissions. The simulations demonstrate the policy, strategy, and practical challenges in achieving significant long-term energy and GHG emission reductions from the residential building stock in a country with a rapidly growing population.