Exploring scenarios for the future of energy management in UK property

The most appropriate responses to the energy management of buildings from now until 2050 are investigated through a process of scenario planning. A qualitative, explorative approach was undertaken to develop four 2050 scenario endstates resulting from an axis of two critical uncertainties not closely correlated: the attitudes of society towards sustainability; and the availability of energy. These scenarios were applied to the property industry through expert workshops, from which trends and themes were identified. The findings are that the property industry should prepare for a transitional period with an uncertain outlook. Therefore, it would be prudent for this industry to focus on resilient performance under a diverse set of futures, and plausible shock events, rather than optimizing for today's conditions. This could be challenging in a sector that works on relatively long time scales. Aspects that should be incorporated into property industry strategy are suggested: responding to the potential effects of climate change; understanding what drives communities and investing in buildings that are significant to the community's functions; considering transport links as key to successful property investments; adopting the latest technological innovations; and becoming more 'full service' and interdisciplinary. A need for a paradigm shift in the industries' practices was also identified.