Alternative scenarios for energy conservation in the building stock

Despite significant efforts involving design and regulatory targets, no significant reduction of overall primary energy consumption and carbon emissions has been realized in the European building stock since 1975. The improved performance of new buildings has been offset by the increased size of the stock and other rebound effects. Significant gaps exist in the data and understanding of building stocks' composition and dynamics as well as of the actual energy impacts of refurbishment. Most methods to address existing buildings and stocks are inappropriate as they are conceptually derived from new construction. The discussion about the relation between demand reduction and decarbonization of the energy supply needs to be extended specifically to consider existing buildings. New types of target systems based on the continuous control of effective performance are considered. An alternative scenario is proposed: long-term incremental changes and the formulation of technological options. This is based on continuous monitoring and systematic risk evaluation. The conservation of the physical, economic, social and cultural value of the building stock can only be reached through a comprehensive incremental transformation of the stock. A research agenda is explored to support this strategy.