Predicting building performance: The ethics of computer simulation

A responsible architect or engineer taking sustainable design seriously will aim to create a built environment that exhibits cohesion in the contexts of environmental, social/cultural, and technological realms. In addition, the very notion of sustainability extends an actual (or implied) duty of care to peoples and environments now and into the future. Advanced computer simulation of environmental and technological performance offers one way of tackling this obligation. However, claims about simulation can lead to a spurious impression of accuracy and therefore legitimacy. Likewise, inappropriate applications of simulation may result in wrong decisions and an erroneous allocation of resources. Almost all discussions of the validity of computer simulation for decision-making focus on its quantitative accuracy; however, the problems addressed are often far from well defined. Two concepts from the social sciences, 'trustworthiness' and a taxonomy of 'ignorance', are introduced as ways of assessing the appropriate use of simulation. Simulation applications should not be seen as surrogates of reality and interpreted as logical answers to substantive problems. Although simulations have potency as perspectives to support wise human judgements, a more mature approach is needed when applying these tools and outputs to decision-making.