Space heating demand and heatwave vulnerability: London domestic stock

A conceptual framework and methodological approach are developed to understand the potential linkage between urban domestic heat demand and the heatwave vulnerability index, using the London building stock as a case study. A geographic information system (GIS)-based systematic approach towards exploring the impact of the urban built form and the heat island phenomenon on domestic space heating needs and heat-related mortality is demonstrated. The physical properties of individual dwellings were inferred from existing GIS databases as a function of given attributes (such as the form and age of the property). Localized annual heating degree-days (HDD) across London were predicted using a site-specific model. Each dwelling was modelled using a modified version of the steady-state annual domestic energy model. The energy consumption profiles generated were subsequently compared with existing top-down regional energy statistics. In addition, local environmental factors such as built density, green coverage ratio, and land surface temperature were extracted from a combination of GIS and satellite image data sources. By mapping these factors across the Greater London Area, their influence on the risk of heat death during the 2006 heatwave was examined. The model could potentially be utilized to inform urban-scale policies relating to the reduction of CO2 emissions and the identification of heat-vulnerable population groups across London.