Climate action at the neighbourhood scale: Comparing municipal future scenarios

Municipalities face the direct impact of climate change events, but many are challenged to assess the potential outcomes of future climate action policies. It is essential for local municipalities to be able to evaluate cross-sector and cross-scale policy interventions, but many lack the expertise and resources for wholistic forecasting. This paper used a hybrid interscalar and interdisciplinary modeling approach to evaluate, compare, visualize, and reveal the performance of climate actions at building and neighbourhood scales of future 'what-if' scenarios for three neighbourhood urban form types (dispersed, corridor, nodal) in three cities in British Columbia, Canada (Vancouver, Victoria, Prince George). Results found that increases in population density combined with strict building standards and retrofitting older buildings decreased per person emissions per year by up to 84% by 2050. Within the neighbourhoodscale areas, building form and location had less impact. Population density and frequency of transit service were most important for mobility mode shifts. Concentrating density at transit nodes or along commercial corridors improved the percentages of residents within a fiveminute walk of those services, but proximity to greenspaces showed mixed results.