Risk analysis of building energy performance gap: Considering project complexity

Compelling evidence reveals a substantial energy performance gap (BEPG) in low- and zero-energy buildings. While risks contributing to BEPG stem from various complexities of projects, existing literature lacks comprehensive risk analysis of BEPG considering project complexities. This study addresses this gap by comprehensively identifying project complexities and energy performance risks and analysing their relationship through a literature review and interviews. Findings highlight technology synergies, time and cost constraints, internal and external uncertainties, and client and supply chain immaturity as significant complexity factors affecting energy performance risks and leading to BEPG. The varying impacts of complexities underscore the need to integrate project complexity into BEPG risk analysis for tailored risk management strategies in building projects. This study not only contributes to the BEPG literature by introducing a risk analysis perspective into building energy performance management, but also benefits project stakeholders by enhancing understanding of BEPG-related risk factors and providing references for proactively assessing and mitigating risks, thereby increasing the likelihood of achieving energy performance targets and reducing BEPG.