Modelling earthquake damage repair costs: Improving accuracy for preparedness decision making

Natural disasters damage physical assets causing causalities and interruption to businesses. Disaster impacts can be addressed proactively (preparedness) or reactively (recovery). Building adaptation measures; as a form of disaster preparedness; can reduce the level of damage should the disaster occur. Nevertheless, building owners need to be convinced that it is cost-effective to invest in pro-active adaptation measures. An accurate prediction of the repair costs associated with recovery is paramount to determining the economic viability of ex-ante disaster risk reduction investments. Currently, antecedent loss modelling is based on numerous assumptions about risk; vulnerability; and the required damage repair cost. Determining the critical factors influencing overall damage repair costs can reduce such inaccuracies. Damage recovery costs and selected details for 7999 properties recorded from 66 towns in the Italian province of Emilia Romagna damaged by the 2012 Earthquake were assembled. Statistical analysis was undertaken to correlate the repair costs and the damage status; location of the property; floor area of the property and the repair duration. The paper questions the reliability of antecedent loss modelling related to property damage using simplistic and generic economic models. Factors that predict the repair cost are also highlighted.