Scenarios for the digitalisation of the construction industry

Digital technology is frequently put forward as being able to address the major challenges of low productivity and poor quality in the construction industry. For this potential to be realised however, a detailed examination of the fundamental issues connecting digital technology adoption and business/ delivery models that bring the most benefit to construction stakeholders is required. To understand this complex inter-relationship within structural and cultural context explicitly, there is a need to develop implementation strategies which are sensitive to plausible future scenarios on industry development pathways. As part of Transforming Construction Initiative, the research presented here outlines four plausible future scenarios for a transformed construction sector enabled by digital technologies. The underpinning empirical work involved a review of academic literature in the areas of economics, architecture, engineering, construction, technology change and various consulting materials, 22 semi-structured interviews and 4 focus groups to identify and explore uncertainties (e.g. Brexit), trends (e.g. environmental concerns) and barriers to digital technology adoption (e.g. lack of understanding, low capital)  and business model change. The analysis also involved 3 scenario development workshops. The next step was to represent the data on two intersecting axes. Our investigation found that uncertainties, trends and barriers all impact research, development and innovation (RDI). Furthermore, our analysis determines that business models can be changed due to the extent of collaboration/ integration. For instance, the amount of collaboration/ partnership between high-tech firms and construction sector firms. Consequently, the extent of RDI and collaboration/ integration provide the underpinning key dimensions for the scenarios (the x-axis and y-axis respectively). The final stage also developed policy recommendations. For instance, to increase the adoption of digital technology, policymakers should design regulation that promotes accountability and transparency.