Predictive relationship in time and cost between planning and construction phases in capital projects

The purpose of this quantitative, predictive correlational study was to examine to what extent, if any, a statistically predictive relationship existed between the changes in predictor variable of planning phase time and cost and the criterion variables of construction phase time and cost in capital projects in the United States. Grounded in prospect theory, this study includes optimism bias, leading individuals to overestimate positive outcomes and underestimate actual likelihood. The study addresses two key research questions using a multiple linear regression model to predict the relationship between combined planning phase time and cost with construction phase time, and construction phase cost. The study used convenient sampling to access the New York City School Construction Authority (SCA) archival datasets. The results revealed that changes in planning phase time and cost combined significantly predicted construction phase time with F (2,153) = 4.66, p = 0.011, but not construction phase cost with F (2, 157) = 2.29, p = 0.105. The results indicate that planning phase time overruns reduce construction phase time, suggesting that longer planning can lead to shorter construction times, while also showing that planning phase cost overruns are associated with construction phase time overruns. Additionally, construction phase costs positively correlated with planning phase times, indicating overruns, while planning phase cost overruns minimally impact construction phase costs. The low R² and adjusted R² values for both models suggest that changes in planning phase time and cost combined have limited ability to predict variations in construction phase. Given these limitations, further research remains needed to identify other factors that might better predict construction phase outcomes in capital projects.