Predicting military construction project time outcomes using data analytics

The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is the primary construction agent for the Department of Defense (DoD). Each year the DoD invests billions of dollars in military construction (MILCON) projects in support of the U.S. armed forces missions all over the world. The USACE contracts top design and construction firms to help them meet their objectives. USACE's projects are highly visible to top DoD officials and to the U.S. Congress. Although construction management expertise are gained through many years of experience managing MILCON projects, and despite significant amount of data collected from past projects, completing projects on time remains a challenge. This research uses predictive modeling to analyses 466 completed MILCON projects and identify key factors that influence project time and proposes a model that predicts project time outcomes. The model generates accurate results and serves as a useful tool in the early phases of project life cycle. This research provides a useful analysis that shades light on how each key factor affects project time performance. Additionally, this research finds that duration of large MILCON projects are often underestimated and projects that are more likely to be completed late are those with large estimated duration and low estimated cost. This work makes a significant contribution to the fields of systems engineering, engineering management and project management.