Project risk propagation modeling of engineering, procurement and construction

The construction industry is complicated since it involves a variety of stakeholders, challenging environmental issues, huge investments, complex economic and political factors, and other features which may cause an uncertain and unpredictable environment for construction projects. Impacts of risk events can transfer from one phase (source) of a construction project to another phase (target) very quickly and can cause more damage in other phases. Thus, two surveys were conducted to understand the risk propagation phenomena among the engineering, procurement, and construction phases. We conducted two surveys and analyzed data acquired by using sensitive analysis and binary logistic regression modeling. Risk propagation models in construction projects were developed and the interrelationship among the risk events and project management areas were established. The results indicated that “late design decisions and drawings” is the most important risk event in terms of risk propagation to other phases of construction projects. Also, the Procurement - Construction was found to be the strongest risk event propagation relationship in construction projects. In other words, procurement risk events have the greatest impact on the construction phase. Furthermore, in this study, twenty-eight binary logistic regression models were developed among project phases and project management areas.