Integrated decision process model (idepm) for the development of the build-operate-transfer (bot) highway project proposals

The Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) mechanism is expected to be increasingly used to promote transportation infrastructure facilities including highways and bridges. It will open up tremendous opportunities for the developers to penetrate into new markets. The method, however, imposes much more risks on the developers than traditional construction. Furthermore, each BOT project includes unique project conditions and few historical projects are available in the world that can be used as a reference. To develop a quality proposal under the complex and uncertain BOT project environment, the developers need formalism that can consistently address the risk variables and decisions critical to project feasibility regardless of the individually different BOT project conditions. The main objectives of this research are (1) to develop a generic Integrated Decision Process Model (IDEPM) as the formalism that helps developers make a quality proposal as well as develop a better understanding of the integrative nature of the BOT projects and (2) to validate the IDEPM in terms of its development objective and to measure the decision-makers' behavior in using the IDEPM. The usability of the IDEPM in relation to the decision-makers' experience is also addressed. Two research methodologies are combined together to meet the research objectives: knowledge modeling technique and case study methodology. The knowledge modeling method is used to develop the IDEPM while the case study technique is employed to test the IDEPM. Twenty-four subjects are identified from diverse business areas as a test participant including construction, computer science, law, marketing, finance, and telecommunications. Among a number of decisions in the BOT proposal development process, this research focuses on the go/no-go decision. The Go/No-go IDEPM consists of two parts: the process model and decision variables relationship model. The relationship model includes computational procedures to quantitatively analyze the decision problem. This study develops the Multi-attribute Decision Analysis Technique (MADAT), which combines the advantages of various decision theories, as an appropriate theoretical background of the Go/No-go IDEPM.