Project performance modeling: A methodology for evaluating project execution strategies

A performance modeling methodology for application to individual projects has been developed. The model combines experience captured from experts with assessments from the project team. The methodology consist of a conceptual qualitative model structure, and a mathematical model structure. The conceptual model structure, called General Performance Model (GPM), is a simplified model of the variables and interaction that influence project performance. The mathematical model uses concepts of cross-impact analysis and probabilistic inference to capture the uncertainties and interactions among project variables. Special attention was given to cognitive aspects in the modeling process. Problem representation, human problem solving and prevention of biases in the assessment processes were object of study. Influence diagrams, directed meetings and other questioning tools sensitive to human cognitive needs were integrated into a systematic knowledge acquisition methodology to obtain assessments from the users. Project options such as organizational structures, incentive plans, and team building alternatives have been incorporated into the model knowledge base. The GPM allows management to test different combinations of project execution options and predict expected cost, schedule, and other performance impacts. The methodology provides a systematic and structured process for a project team discussion on relevant planning issues in a project. Researchers should benefit from exploratory and analysis capabilities of the methodology, as well as flexible knowledge structure to update models and data. Computer implementation is also attractive as a mean of disseminating research results.