Roadway infrastructure management and investment behavior studies for developing countries: A multicriteria approach to road improvement decision-making

The application of inappropriate analytical technology to road maintenance management has resulted in discouraging outcomes of road improvement programs for developing countries. In Guyana two of the major problems encountered are: (1) The inability of the road administration to sustain improved analytical technology such as computerized pavement management systems with automated inspection techniques etc. (2) The proposed annual road-works program and budget of the road administration does not match the fiscal program and expenditure approved by the central government. This study presents a systemization of maintenance functions for Guyana's network by creating improved techniques for use under local conditions. These functions included condition evaluation, performance prediction, improvement needs analysis, and project evaluation. Expert knowledge was used to reconstruct plausible condition data, from which performance curves were developed to predict condition states. From this, the proposed annual road-works budgets were derived. Project evaluation and selection were tailored to address the incompatibility between the proposed and approved budgets. The factors which influence road improvement investment by the central government were investigated. These factors include: resource use, community, politics, and agency constraints. Regression analysis, used to establish the significant factors, supported the hypothesis that economic, social, and organizational factors were influential, but political factors were not statistically significant. The regression equation expressed the actual (as executed) road-work budget as a function of the road administration's proposed budget and influential factors. A relative weight was derived for each significant factor which reflected the extent to which it influenced the actual budget. Using these factors and their relative weights, a multicriteria technique was applied to rank improvement alternatives. Finally a method of project selection was proposed which optimized the rank order, subject to the budget constraint. The overall road improvement evaluation methodology presented is sustainable by the road administration of Guyana and the proposed maintenance programs and budgets are anticipated to be more acceptable to the budget committee than in the past.