Use of influence diagrams to assess the cost and schedule impact of construction changes

A construction change is a specific modification in the planned work or approach to the work. A change order is a formal modification to the original contract agreement. Both changes and change orders are of principle concern to construction contractors and present a problem within the construction industry in that they often have an adverse impact on the cost and schedule of a project. A new approach for assessment of cost and schedule impacts of change orders is developed through the application of the analytical tool of influence diagrams. This approach will allow data normally monitored at the jobsite to be applied directly to an impact analysis tool. A standard Change Order Management Procedure (COMP) model is developed. Created from the critical factors of documentation elements, pricing elements, and informational elements, the COMP illustrates the invaluable strength of influence diagrams as a change management tool and is used to determine the deficiencies of current pricing techniques. A fundamental extension of influence diagrams is made through the development of a technique to determine construction node contents. A methodology to model construction activities and construction activity combinations with influence diagrams is established. By combining construction activity influence diagram nodes, a model of a job can be created and utilized to forecast direct, indirect, and consequential impacts of a change. Through a complete diagram, change impacts may be traced through a job leading to an expected impact at the final node of the diagram. Change impact assessment with this new model is proven possible. Example change impact assessments from actual jobs are provided and analyzed using the influence diagram based technique.