A managerial approach to forecasting for the construction industry

The central theme of this study is one of anticipatory management. Although it is hoped that the observations and principles will contribute to management in general, the arena is the Northern Ireland construction industry. The aim is to make the future more clear, and thereby more manageable. It is hoped that this study will help the construction manager to cope with the future vicissitudes in the business cycle, just as the method of present value, or discounted cash flow, helps the financial manager to deal with the future. The construction industry is one of the first industries to benefit from any improvement in business conditions, and equally one of the first to suffer from any worsening. This makes the subject matter of interest to managers in general, for the construction industry is the bell-wether for other industries. The fluctuations in the construction industry's workload are more extreme than in most industries, and this is what makes the matter important for the construction manager. The high failure rate of construction firms is taken as further evidence of the need for anticipatory management, within the industry, to cope with the aforementioned volatility. House building is the area of construction that has been studied most, particularly with a view to forecasting the number of housing starts.