Tender price and time prediction for construction work

The investment decision for a proposed building is usually based upon a prediction of the construction price. The thesis considers the reliability and accuracy of price predictions and develops a new approach to forecasting prices at the design stage based upon operational data. The concept of construction prices is discussed together with the extent of the variability exhibited by prices for various trades and items of building work. Existing methods of price prediction for construction work are analysed, in particular, cost models are considered as a basis for prediction. The accuracy of the quantity surveyor's price predictions and the contractor's estimates are investigated using case studies. A method of monitoring performance is put forward to show past trends and provide information on corrective action that should be taken. The use of a construction duration model has been researched to predict, at the design stage, the time required to construct a building. The model gives the design team the opportunity of testing the effect of alternative design solutions on the construction time. The model has been linked to the preliminaries trade and by simulating the contractor's approach on pricing preliminaries, a price forecast is produced based upon the duration for each of the items in the trade. &case study of a medium rise office building is used to test the model. An operational approach to price prediction is produced by using the duration model in conjunction with algorithms and factor tables for the activities in the construction process. The system takes account of the effect on prices of operational sequence of activities, the method of construction, and the factors that influence site productivity.