A fuzzy reasoning decision making approach based multi-expert judgement for construction project risk analysis

With the advance of technology, construction projects have become increasingly complex and dynamic. Risk assessment, therefore, is normally a process of decision making conducted by multiple experts in a vague and fuzzy environment. It should be noted that background and contribution of the experts to the subject under consideration would differ from one another. However, preferences of experts do not have to be in conflict. The decision to be made by a group is highly dependent on the way of interaction and the type of aggregation to individuals. Therefore, risk analysts are required to capture the underlying subjective preferences to reach a decision value upon a reliable analysis. In order to facilitate the handling of uncertainty and subjectivity associated with projects and expert judgements, a multi-expert decision making methodology based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. The methodology utilizes a fuzzy aggregation system in which an appropriate control action can be determined by the acquisition and examination of individual expert judgements. This paper describes the principal issues of multi-expert judgement based on fuzzy reasoning decision making approaches in construction project risk analysis. A risk analysis model based on fuzzy set theory is presented to facilitate the decision making involving multiple experts under a vague and subjective circumstance. An illustrative example is also presented to demonstrate the proposed risk analysis model.