Risk analysis of terrorism on U.S. Cargo transportation infrastructure

In the past four years, national security has been a primary concern, initially regarding human health, and eventually including protection of sensitive infrastructure, the environment, and commerce from threats of terrorism. Safeguards employed have included change in policy, intrusion detection technology, increased surveillance, and improved intelligence. An innovative method of safeguarding cargo shipment exists as a technology currently reserved for limited and special applications: freight pipeline transhipment. Risk associated with this specialized form of U.S. infrastructure is developed as "what-if" scenario sequences. The severity of consequences is quantified by index numbers prescribed by the US Department of Home Land Security. Impacts of these hazards are then analyzed in more detail using a two-tier study, which focuses on the negative impact to human well-being, capital assets, and socio-economic stability. The risk assessment includes acceptability factors which are based on the incremental acceptable risks derived from revealed preference concepts. In summary, the risk assessment for terrorism on the infrastructure involves: (1) the evaluation of terrorism hazards to human health, the environment, and commerce; (2) terrorism activity scenario development; (3) risk estimation for different terrorist activities; and (4) risk acceptability analysis for the matrix of potential consequences. Most terror risk to infrastructure in the U.S. is immediately deemed unacceptable by society. However, in this study, it is found that when appropriate threat deterrent technologies are employed, risk acceptability can be achieved; whereas malicious threats to conventional surface transportation systems may remain indefinitely unacceptable, even given enhancement of security policies and safeguard measures.