Project phase-based contingency adjustment framework for infrastructure renewal projects

Given the importance of accurate contingency estimation to properly absorb cost fluctuations, there have been enormous efforts to identify risk factors and measure contingency in roadway projects. However, no study has proposed a contingency framework that reflects the linkage effects of factors through the project phases. To this end, this research develops a project phase-based contingency adjustment framework using a path analysis drawing on a dataset of 1,053 rehabilitation, reconstruction, and resurfacing (3R) roadway projects in Florida. In particular, our framework incorporates the sequential effects of factors through the lenses of project phases from planning and bidding and contract to construction and completion. The developed path model shows that individual factors may have direct and/or indirect impacts on project costs. The results of this study can be applied to better contingency and cost estimation and proper risk management in the preconstruction phases of roadway renewal projects.