Identifying and categorizing the sources of uncertainty in construction supply chains

Uncertainty affecting operations has long been recognized by researchers as a major obstacle to the delivery of customer value in supply chains. While it has been acknowledged that different types of supply chain have different uncertainty profiles, there is little academic literature addressing the particular uncertainties relating to engineer-to-order (ETO) supply chains in which each product is designed for the needs of a specific customer. The key research question addressed in this paper is how the substantive sources of project uncertainty in construction supply chains can be identified and categorized. A three-phase framework for the identification and categorization of uncertainty is proposed. The empirical investigation reported in this paper demonstrates how the framework may be applied to a group of ETO projects. Using multiple data collection methods, including site visits, interviews, and industry workshops, the uncertainties in five projects are identified and categorized using the framework to demonstrate its application. The framework thereby established is generalized to cover a range of construction projects.