Cash flow projections for selected TxDoT highway projects

In planning for contractor payments, an owner with multiple projects needs to estimate the amount of money to be paid to contractors in coming months. For an owner as large as the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDoT), one is faced with the problem of organizing the budget to ensure that there are sufficient funds for all projects. This investigation was requested by TxDoT to provide a tool to forecast future project payments. Recent account summaries of TxDoT projects from 2001 to 2003 were analyzed for creating mathematical models representing monthly payments for various projects. The data were organized into categories of project types and subcategories of project contract amount. A fourth degree polynomial regression analysis was run on the data and the regression curve, when statistically significant, was taken to be the forecast payment curve. Finally, a computer program was developed to implement the results of the investigation for TxDoT's needs. The methodology provided will help other highway agencies to create their own equations to better predict project cash flows and trends. This investigation might also benefit researchers in projecting cash flows and trends, while also allowing for improvements.