As likely as not it could happen: Linguistic interpretations of risk

This paper describes a study highlighting the predominance of linguistic, as opposed to numerical percentile expressions of probability, amongst project management groups during risk assessment. When group members were unable to draw upon decisive historical data or personal experience phrases such as 'could happen' and 'as likely as not' were used. Arguably such expressions amount to meaningless 50/50 probabilities indicating that often probabilities are compiled in ignorance. The effects of such linguistic interpretations of likelihood and their impact upon risk management strategies are discussed. The study methodology utilized conversation analysis techniques within a phenomenological-oriented case study framework that allowed the observation of contemporary group discussion events. The objective of the case study was to establish the 'methods' used by individual group members to establish the subjective probabilities of risk occurrence within structured risk management frameworks.