Using a hybrid system dynamics and interpretive structural modeling for risk analysis of design phase of the construction projects

Risks in construction projects are dynamic in nature and hence should be considered as a complex interrelated system rather than a set of separate individual factors. In this paper, a hybrid SD-ISM method is proposed in order to extend the structural systematic approach of Interpretive Structural Modeling with dynamic capabilities of System Dynamics to analyse the uncertainties in design phase of the construction projects. A mathematical model is developed, validated, and then applied to a case project. Using the sensitivity analysis, project risks are prioritized to identify the major risks which have relatively large influence on project behaviour. Then, quantitative analysis of individual risk factors and overall project risk are performed for the case project. It was shown that how considering the interrelated structures and dynamics of the overall project risk can help the managers for the accurate estimation of the project objectives such as its cost and completion time.