Diagnosing and quantifying post-COVID-19 fluctuations in the architecture billings indices

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to understand the post-COVID-19 fluctuations in the building construction demand from various angles at the national, regional, and sectoral levels. Despite the significant impact of COVID-19 on the building construction industry, a detailed quantitative analysis of the COVID-19 impact on the building construction demand is still lacking. The current study aims to (1) establish a statistical approach to quantify the COVID-19 impact on the building construction demand; (2) investigate the post-COVID-19 fluctuations in the construction demand of different building services, regional markets, and building sectors using the historical time series of the architecture billings index (ABI); and (3) identify vulnerable market and sector and discuss the post-COVID-19 recovery strategies. Design/methodology/approach: The research methodology follows four steps: (1) collecting national, regional, and sectoral ABIs; (2) creating seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models; (3) illustrating cumulative sum control charts to identify significant ABI deviations; and (4) quantifying the post-COVID-19 ABI fluctuations. Findings: The results show that all the ABIs experienced a statistically significant decrease after COVID-19. The project inquiries index reduced more but recovered faster than billings and design contracts indices. The midwest billings index decreased the most among the regional ABIs and the commercial/industrial billing index dropped the most among the sectoral ABIs. Originality/value: This study is unique in the way that it utilized the ABI data and the approach using SARIMA models and CUSUM control charts to assess the post-COVID-19 building construction demand represented by ABI fluctuations.